According to indicators, all odds are that Ugandans are destined for a big showdown between the two giant contenders of the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) and leading opposition National Unity Platform (NUP), come March 13, 2025, the D-day for Kawempe North by-elections.
Ten aspirants have been given a green light by the Electoral Commission (EC) but the main thrust of the battle seems to be between the NRM’s Faridah Nambi, and NUP’s Erias Luyimbaazi Nalukoola.
Others in the race include; Henry Kasacca Mubiru (DP), Ismael Musiitwa (PPP), Sadat Mukiibi a.k.a Aganaga (FDC), Muhamood Mutazindwa, Moses Nsereko, Muhamad Lusswa Luwemba, Hanifah Karadi Murerwa and Stanley Edward Maitum Engena who are standing on an independent bid.
Engena, who is one of the latest entrants into the race, is son to former Ugandan President, the late Dr. Apollo Milton Obote.
In words clearly portraying determination, both NRM and NUP sides are predicting high victory, with the NUP predicting an 80 per cent victory, while the NRM believes that the least they are likely to get at the final count is 60 per cent.
Pr. Godfrey Luwagga, the NRM chairperson for Kawempe division says as good learners, his party supporters have picked lessons from the losses inflicted on them in the past elections, adding that this was reflected in the multitude of supporters who accompanied their candidate Faridah Nambi at her nomination because he noted, they were all her voters.
“Our registers show that the constituency has close to 50,000 members, and if all are effectively mobilized to go and cast their votes, victory is certainly on our side,” Pr. Luwagga said.
RDC Eyeeyisizza Ng’atamidde wuniikirizza Abatuuze, Ataamidde Aba Prison ne Poliisi
In a similarly tough sounding language, former area MP Latif Ssebaggala is swearing that after liberation of the constituency in 2001, it will never fall back to their enemy’s (NRM) hands.
Confirming his prophecy, Ssebaggala said, “The worst we can get is 80 percent and we are mobilizing all our eligible voters to make haste and vote for Nalukoola on 13th March.”
He added that the security mistreatment meted out to the NUP is a clear indicator of the candidate that the government fears most.
Experts forecast by people conversant with the geography of the constituency gave hints on what will determine the next legislator for Kawempe North including results from Kawempe 1 and Kyebando wards. Of the nine wards, the two are the most populous and a candidate who takes these is likely to emerge winner.
Bwaise I has 18,405 voters, Kanyanya has 17,704, Komamboga has 9,497, Kawempe I has 35,185, Kawempe II 19,750, Kazo-Angola has 18,643, while Kikaaya, Kyebando and Mpererwe have 16,887, 36,244 and 6,430 voters respectively.
Former Kawempe South MP, Ssebuliba Mutumba said subsequent legislators have been Muslims, basing on the fact that Kawempe is a Muslim stronghold having been home to the late Prince Nuhu Mbogo who was buried there.
Because of the big numbers of Muslims in the area, he argues that it clearly explains why former legislators including Haji Jamada Luzinda, Latif Ssebaggala and Muhammad Ssegirinnya were Muslims. So, the religious bias component cannot be overlooked in determining who comes next.
Secondly, Ssebuliba Mutumba states that what is undoubted is the fact that the area is mainly an opposition stronghold, implying that a candidate subscribing to the leading opposition party has an inclination in his/her favor.
He is also of the view that a candidate’s originality matters a lot. A son or daughter of the area has better chances, and added that Ssegirinya managed to scoop victory though he originated from Masaka just because he had stayed with the people and actually adapted to their ways.
Mutumba also thinks that the face value of a candidate will be a major determining factor of the leader. A person without properly packaged messages will most likely be rejected by the voters.
Again, looking for votes with nothing to show by way of financial muscle will be a disadvantage.
And a political lecturer at Kampala University, Siraje Nsanja thinks that to cope favorably, the candidate should be conversant with national matters, even those falling outside the constituency, and have a clearly understandable agenda for tackling them.
On the question of freedom and fairness, it will largely depend on how security agencies will handle the people during the election period, that is according to Nsanja.
The vote hunting team must comprise people known to the voters, as this tends to attract them, considering that they can see some form of accountability in people close to them.